Leading Economic Indicators Up - Consumer Confidence Takes a Dip

The Conference Board reports that Leading Economic Indicators were up in March 2007.  CLICK HERE FOR REPORT.

The orgainzation report summary is as fillows:

• The leading index increased slightly in March following two consecutive declines. In the six months from September to March, the leading index fell 0.1 percent (a -0.3 percent annual rate). In addition, the weaknesses among the indicators have become increasingly more widespread than the strengths over the past few months. In March, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), real money supply (M2), and average workweek in manufacturing made large positive contributions to the leading index, but these were partially offset by decreases in stock prices, consumer expectations, and the interest rate spread.
• The coincident index increased again in March. From September to March, the coincident index increased by 0.9 percent (a 1.8 percent annual rate). In March, the largest contribution came from nonagricultural employment, and the strengths of the coincident index have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
• The leading index is still about 0.9 percent below its most recent high in January 2006 and it is 0.8 percent below its March 2006 level. Despite a small pick up in December, the leading index has been essentially flat since mid-2006. At the same time, real GDP growth was at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, following a 2.0 percent rate in the third quarter. The recent behavior of the leading and coincident indexes suggests that slow economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.

Also today (April 24) the Conference Board reported that Consumer Confidence has dipped 3.8% in April 2007.  CLICK HERE TO READ FULL RELEASE.

Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center summarized: "Unlike the decline in March, which was solely the result of apprehension about the short-term outlook, this month's decline was a combination of weakening expectations and a less favorable assessment of present-day conditions. Rising prices at the gas pump continue to play a key role in dampening consumers' short-term expectations. The decline in the Present Situation Index — the first decline in six months — warrants monitoring in the months ahead, as further declines would suggest a softening in growth."